You have to hand it to Mark Zuckerberg. When most people have an expensive midlife crisis, they buy a sports car or grow a beard. He tried to buy reality itself. I just bought a sports car but didn’t grow a beard.
So..he tried to create (buy) his own universe. He called it the Metaverse. It was a shiny new toy that he thought would change the world.
That shimmering techno-utopia where we’d all don headsets the size of toasters and hold meetings as legless cartoons floating in beige virtual offices.
Zuckerberg wasn’t content with merely owning Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp—the actual infrastructure of human procrastination. No, he had to rebrand the entire company as Meta and spend roughly $36 billion trying to sell us on the idea that strapping a screen to our faces was the future of civilization.
But he isn’t alone. Elon Musk has a shiny toy except it is a distant planet in our existing universe called Mars. And that makes as much sense as Mark’s distraction and folly.
Except that just going to Mars could kill you and once you arrive stepping outside into the toxic air and temperatures that will freeze you (minus 225 degrees Fahrenheit on a bad day). And don’t think about going to the beach or a walk in the forest.
But…back to Meta and Mark. It was such a compelling vision: A world with worse graphics than a 2003 PlayStation game, where you can have meetings that are somehow even more depressing than Zoom.
Of course, investors weren’t thrilled. Turns out it’s hard to sell people on an escapist fantasy when real life already feels like a dystopian sci-fi novel. But you have to admire him for trying. Mark didn’t just bet the farm…he bulldozed it, paved it over with 1000’s of programmers’ pale bodies, and called it the next frontier of human connection.
So here’s the question:
Was it a visionary genius a few decades too early? Or the most expensive example of “Shiny Toy Syndrome” in tech history?
Mark was trying to create a new universe on earth and Elon is still wanting to send us to a dangerous far distant universe to escape earth.
I think history will tell us who was dumber and thought he was smarter because he had too much money.
Being good at one thing doesn’t mean you are a genius at everything. That syndrome is sometimes called the “Dunning-Kruger Effect.”
Enter Agentic AI
Today, the promise is even grander: Agentic AI that doesn’t just answer questions but does things for you. Your personal agent. Your tireless employee. Your virtual butler, therapist, and life coach rolled into one.
Sound familiar? It should. Because if there’s one thing tech history teaches us, it’s that for every smartphone that changes the world, there’s a Metaverse waiting to devour billions and deliver almost nothing.
So before we all rush to bet the farm on AI agents that might, let’s be honest, still struggle to order a pizza correctly, maybe it’s worth asking: is this the next great leap? Or just the next shiny toy waiting to become a very expensive cautionary tale?
Why it matters
Telling the difference between the fad of a shiny toy vs a trend that will change the world and make a difference is hard to pick from a distance. What looks smart today can look very dumb in the future
Investing in a real, lasting trend matters because it drives meaningful progress and solves genuine problems, while chasing a shiny fad wastes time, money, and trust.
Choosing wisely shapes a better future instead of squandering resources on hype that delivers nothing.
By the numbers
Numbers matter. If my Garmin watch doesn’t record my bike ride data with how far I rode and how high I climbed, or my sleep score…..It never happened.
Meta poured a ton of money into the Metaverse and thought they could break the universe and make Mark Zuckerberg the “Master of the Universe”. Or, maybe it was a bit of a “Field of Dreams”. Build it and they will come. But they didn’t!
One individual put in some big dollars into what he thought was the future and at this stage it looks like it wasn’t, but just a billionaire’s folly.
He seems to have forgotten a phenomenon of the 11th commandment. “The wisdom of the crowds.”
It refers to the observation that the average guess of a large group of people can be remarkably accurate—even more accurate than most individual expert guesses.
The classic example refers to Francis Galton (1907), who at a country fair, asked about 800 people to guess the weight of an ox. While individual guesses varied widely, the median (or mean) of all guesses was extremely close to the actual weight.
Follow the money?
It appears that the crowds have voted with their wallets and maybe their collective wisdom may be very wise.
AI investors—especially VCs and major tech players—are pouring unprecedented capital into Agentic AI. In Q1 2025 alone, global VC funding for AI startups reached a record $91.5 billion, with over half of that aimed at building autonomous AI agents
In Europe, roughly $548 million was allocated to AI agent startups in just the first six weeks of 2025 Crunchbase News.
The market’s growth projections are staggering. Estimates suggest that the Agentic AI sector could grow from around $5–7 billion in 2024–2025 to $187 billion by 2034—or even $216 billion by 2035—with compound annual growth rates near 40–42% LinkedIn.
Fortune 500 adoption is also remarkable: 79% of these companies currently have active Agentic AI projects and Azure/Redux reports show that nearly 30% of organizations are already running agentic AI, with 44% planning to integrate it within the next year Blue Prism.
A Georgian survey of 600 execs confirms that 91% in R&D plan to adopt agentic AI, with 45% already piloting it—and over half expect transformational impact on productivity Georgian.
At the corporate scale, firms like Microsoft report over $500 million in cost savings from AI initiatives in 2024 Times of India, and B2B data from the UK and EU shows nearly two‑thirds of companies seeing ROI within the first year of AI adoption.
However, a sobering projection from Gartner warns that over 40% of agentic AI projects may be scrapped by 2027 due to cost and unclear value—though they also predict such agents will handle 15% of routine business decisions and be integrated into a third of enterprise apps by 2028. s
What is “Shiny Toy Syndrome”?
Shiny Toy Syndrome is the tendency to get distracted by new, flashy, or hyped-up technologies, tools, or ideas—without critically evaluating their real usefulness or staying power. It’s when excitement about novelty outweighs practical judgment.
In business and tech, it shows up as chasing the latest trend simply because it’s new, rather than because it solves a real problem better. The result? Wasted time, money, and focus on things that turn out to be fads rather than lasting innovations.
It’s the reason teams adopt tools no one uses, investors fund billion-dollar flops, and consumers buy gadgets that gather dust. Spotting shiny toy syndrome early is about asking: Does this really make things better? Or is it just new for the sake of new?
How to work out if something is just a shiny fad and distracting or useful and game changing:
Fads happen because humans are wired to love novelty, and marketers know how to amplify that excitement with hype and promises of being ahead of the curve. They become shiny new toys when people chase the thrill of the new without stopping to ask whether it actually solves a real problem or delivers lasting value.
Clue 1: It solves an actual human problem
The first clue that something is a real trend rather than a passing fad is whether it solves an actual, persistent problem in people’s lives—and does so in a way that’s better, cheaper, or easier than before.
Smartphones didn’t just look cool; they let us carry communication, photography, and the internet in our pockets, creating lasting demand. By contrast, plenty of shiny toys—from 3D TVs to Google Glass—failed because they didn’t align with what people really needed or wanted enough to make the switch.
Clue 2: Accepted by the masses
Another hallmark of a genuine trend is adoption that spreads beyond early enthusiasts to the mainstream. Look for signs that normal, non-technical people are using the technology naturally, without training manuals or expensive gear. It also helps if the experience improves over time and there’s an ecosystem of complementary services. The App Store supercharged smartphone adoption by making new capabilities instantly accessible, while the Metaverse struggled with clunky hardware and nowhere interesting to go.
Clue 3: The hype-to-results ratio
Fads often have marketing that completely outpaces real-world outcomes, with big promises and thin delivery. Long-term trends, on the other hand, might start quietly, even boringly, but prove themselves through repeatable value and viable business models. The best rule of thumb? Be curious enough to experiment, but skeptical enough to ask: “Is this solving a real problem people will keep paying for, or is it just the next expensive distraction?”
And is it delivering real world results?
The eras of shiny tech toys: A personal & cultural history
I have fallen for FOMO a few times and I have been distracted by shiny tech toys. My latest foray into that foible and folly are the Meta Rayban smart glasses. Is it a fad or will it change the world? I am still not sure. But I think it is a stepping stone to the future.
I was also tempted by the mobile phone when it was the size of a suitcase and weighed multiple kilograms and you had to have it installed in your car like a small engine. It didn’t have an internet feature or a web browser at the time
But was it useful?
Getting an urgent call while driving to solve a client problem rather than getting a pager message and hunting for a pay phone helped me close a million dollar deal.
Smartphones: The shiny toy that changed everything
The first iPhone launch in 2007 wasn’t just a product reveal—it was a cultural shift that redefined modern life. What began as a shiny luxury gadget quickly became the world’s dominant computing platform, integrating communication, photography, payments, and navigation into a single indispensable device. As of 2024, over 6.8 billion people worldwide use smartphones (Statista), making them arguably the most successful consumer technology in history.
Laptops: The workhorse evolution
While they never got the rock-star hype of smartphones, laptops transformed work, creativity, and mobility. From the chunky IBM ThinkPads of the 90s to today’s sleek MacBooks and Chromebooks, they enabled remote work and empowered generations of creators. Global laptop shipments reached 237 million units in 2021 alone (Canalys), showing that this “shiny toy” didn’t just last—it matured beautifully into an everyday essential.
Social media: Connection or addiction?
Initially sold as a way to connect with friends and family, social media evolved into a trillion-dollar industry built on surveillance capitalism and algorithmic manipulation. Platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok boast billions of users—but they’ve also faced fierce criticism for fueling polarization, mental health issues, and misinformation (Pew Research). It’s the ultimate paradox: a shiny toy that worked financially beyond imagination, yet remains one of the most criticized industries on Earth.
The Metaverse: The $36 billion shiny toy
Arguably the biggest shiny toy syndrome failure of the last decade, the Metaverse was Mark Zuckerberg’s bet-the-company gamble that most people didn’t want. By 2023, Meta had spent over $36 billion on its Reality Labs division (Business Insider), yet user adoption remained dismal. With clunky, expensive headsets and limited real-world utility, the vision fell flat, proving that you can’t brute-force cultural change—no matter how much you spend
Smart glasses: Promise and reality
Smart glasses have long promised seamless augmented reality but have mostly delivered niche curiosity. Google Glass famously crashed with consumers over privacy fears and limited utility, while Snap Spectacles and Ray-Ban Meta have seen only modest adoption. Even with stylish designs and better cameras, mainstream users still don’t see a killer use case, leaving smart glasses as an idea perennially waiting for its moment (The Verge).
Virtual Reality: Immersive, but not essential
VR has been the “next big thing” for nearly a decade, but mass-market success remains elusive. Headsets like Meta Quest 2 have sold well among gamers (with ~20 million units shipped, The Verge), and training/enterprise use cases show real promise. Yet high costs, comfort issues, and limited must-have content keep VR from becoming essential for most consumers—it’s immersive, impressive, but still stuck just around the corner.
Agentic AI: The latest shiny toy?
But first “What’s agentic AI?”
“Agentic AI is artificial intelligence designed to act autonomously on your behalf, proactively planning and completing tasks rather than just responding to prompts. In essence it acts on your behalf rather than just creating great ideas, images and content.”
If you go onto LinkedIn and take a look you will see many posts that picture it as a panacea and easy to do. The reality is much different.
Agentic AI is the latest dazzling promise in tech in 2025: systems that don’t just respond to your questions but proactively do things for you.
Think autonomous agents that handle planning, workflows, even reasoning steps across apps. The hype is undeniable—VCs are pouring in billions, founders are promising human-level assistants, and media headlines can’t get enough of the “AI agents will replace your team” narrative.
But scratch the surface, and you’ll see the usual signs of shiny toy syndrome: many demos are smoke and mirrors, with carefully curated use cases that gloss over real limitations in reasoning, memory, and context retention. Today’s agents often hallucinate, get stuck, or need significant hand-holding. There’s a real risk of overpromising, just like the Metaverse, with breathless marketing outpacing actual utility.
So is Agentic AI just another fad?
Not necessarily. It’s likely a genuine long-term trend—but one that’s early, messy, and overhyped in the short term.
The underlying capability is real: AI that can coordinate tasks and automate knowledge work could transform productivity, just as spreadsheets and search engines did before. The smart approach isn’t to dismiss it but to engage carefully: experiment, prototype, learn the limits—and stay skeptical of grandiose claims.
In the end, Agentic AI might become boringly essential, but only after the hype burns off and the technology matures.
A framework to consider when differentiating hype from the reality of Agentic AI
Here are 4 points to consider to make sure reality isn’t overwhelmed by hype.
#1: Utility
Agentic AI promises high utility by automating repetitive knowledge work, orchestrating workflows, and serving as a personal or team assistant—potentially saving time and increasing productivity.
But current implementations often struggle with accuracy, reliability, and context management, so the real utility today is still niche and experimental, though the long-term potential is significant.
#2: Adoption barriers
Barriers remain substantial: users need trust that agents won’t make costly mistakes, interfaces must be intuitive, and many workflows require customization or oversight.
Enterprise buyers are wary of security and compliance risks, while everyday users may be intimidated by complexity or disappointed by limitations.
#3: Ecosystem readiness
The ecosystem is rapidly forming but not fully mature.
While there are promising agent frameworks (OpenAI Assistants API, LangChain, AutoGen), integration with existing software, reliable API access, and standardized tooling are still evolving—meaning building and deploying useful agents at scale remains a technical challenge.
#4: Cultural alignment
Culturally, there’s both excitement and skepticism.
Users want productivity boosts, but also fear loss of control, errors, and ethical concerns over automation. For Agentic AI to achieve mass adoption, it will need to align with user expectations for transparency, safety, and genuine helpfulness—just as smartphones and cloud services did over time.
Final thoughts
Technology will always tempt us with shiny new toys—some that transform our lives and others that drain resources chasing hype. From smartphones that became indispensable to the Metaverse that burned billions, history shows the importance of critical evaluation over blind enthusiasm.
Agentic AI sits at this crossroads today: it’s bursting with potential to reshape work, but also risks repeating old patterns of overpromising and underdelivering. The challenge for all of us—builders, investors, users—is to stay curious enough to explore its possibilities while being disciplined enough to demand real, lasting value.
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* This article was originally published here
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